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The Great Reset

Ann Miura-Ko
Contributor

Ann Miura-Ko is a co-founding partner at Floodgate, a seed-stage VC firm. A repeat member of the Forbes Midas List and the New York Times Top 20 Venture Capitalists Worldwide, she earned a PhD in math modeling of cybersecurity at Stanford University.

Talk of an economic downturn can be frightening, especially one precipitated by a pervasive health crisis. At times, I’m overwhelmed by the images of countless patients on life-support and the near-endless streams of statistics regurgitating bad news.

Having started in venture at the beginning of two recessions, I’ve seen how the startup industry functions during economic trouble. My second day of work at Charles River Ventures was September 11th, 2001. My first project, analyzing the VC industry, propelled the firm to return more than 60% of its fund to investors, going from a $1.2 billion fund to $450 million. In May 2008, Mike Maples and I founded Floodgate in the midst of the Great Recession. We learned that great founders won’t wait for a better economic moment to start a company.

While we are currently embroiled in personal and professional circumstances unimaginable even three months ago, these very challenges will form the basis of incredibly innovative ideas. In order for the world to move forward, we need our greatest minds to imagine a brighter future and create solutions to make it a reality.

When I analyze our society and novel health situation, one thing is certain: COVID-19 is a paradigm-shifting event, creating massively accelerated social and economic change.

The Great Reset is not just another economic event

Our current situation is unique. It’s not merely a cyclical economic event, nor is it a standalone health crisis. What we are experiencing is not just an inflection point: it’s a societal phase-change unlike anything we have ever seen. We face an epic choice of how we move forward, and the decisions we make today will shape an entire generation.

Here’s why: COVID-19 is prompting us to reset many of our most fundamental behaviors. These changes are impacting our financial system, with effects visible throughout our homes, businesses and even the concept of “workplace” itself.

COVID-19 is pervasive

As a global pandemic, the virus itself has spread to nearly every country in the world.

Between February 20 and March 26, 100% of the world’s 20 largest economies implemented government-mandated social distancing. Globally, the number of scheduled airline flights is down 64%. In some countries, like Spain and Germany, flight numbers are down by more than 90%.

Since the timeline for lifting government restrictions is unclear — and even then, scientists are uncertain how the virus will spread — the question lingers: How long will this go on?

COVID-19’s impact is uncertain, long-term and potentially undulating, affecting every facet of our lives. You can’t simply wait it out with the expectation that industries will rebound. In 2001, September 11 felt pervasive, but its economic impact ultimately stemmed from just one single incident and the resulting fear… and that one single incident still cost more than three trillion dollars. How much larger will COVID-19 be?

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This Week in Apps: Houseparty battles Messenger, Telegram drops crypto plans, Instagram Lite is gone

Welcome back to This Week in Apps, the Extra Crunch series that recaps the latest OS news, the applications they support and the money that flows through it all.

The app industry is as hot as ever, with a record 204 billion downloads and $120 billion in consumer spending in 2019. People are now spending 3 hours and 40 minutes per day using apps, rivaling TV. Apps aren’t just a way to pass idle hours — they’re a big business. In 2019, mobile-first companies had a combined $544 billion valuation, 6.5x higher than those without a mobile focus.

In this Extra Crunch series, we help you keep up with the latest news from the world of apps, delivered on a weekly basis.

This week we’re continuing to look at how the coronavirus outbreak is impacting the world of mobile applications, including the latest news about COVID-19 apps, Facebook and Houseparty’s battle to dominate the online hangout, the game that everyone’s playing during quarantine, and more. We also look at the new allegations against TikTok, the demise of a popular “Lite” app, new apps offering parental controls, Telegram killing its crypto plans and many other stories, including a hefty load of funding and M&A.

Headlines

Contact tracing and COVID-19 apps in the news 

  • Global: WHO readies its coronavirus app for symptom-checking and possibly contact tracing. A WHO official told Reuters on Friday the new app will ask people about their symptoms and offer guidance on whether they may have COVID-19. Information on testing will be personalized to the user’s country. The organization is considering adding a Bluetooth-based, contact-tracing feature, too. A version of the app will launch globally, but individual countries will be able to use the underlying technology and add features to release their own versions. Engineers from Google and Microsoft have volunteered their time over the past few weeks to develop the app, which is available open-source on GitHub.
  • U.S.: Apple’s COVID-19 app, developed in partnership with the CDC, FEMA and the White House, received its first major update since its March debut. The new version includes recommendations for healthcare workers to align with CDC guidelines, best practices for quarantining if you’ve been exposed to COVID-19 and new information for pregnancy and newborns.
  • India: New Delhi’s contact-tracing app, Aarogya Setu, has reached 100 million users out of India’s total 450 million smartphone owners in 41 days after its release, despite privacy concerns. The app helps users self-assess if they caught COVID-19 by answering a series of questions and will alert them if they came into contact with someone who’s infected. The app has come under fire for how it stores user location data and logs the details for those reporting symptoms. The app is required to use Indian railways, which has boosted adoption.
  • Iceland: Iceland has one of the most-downloaded contact-tracing apps, with 38% of its population using it. But despite this, the country said it has not been a “game-changer” in terms of tracking the virus and only worked well when coupled with manual contact tracing — meaning phone calls that asked who someone had been in contact with. In addition, the low download rate indicates it may be difficult to get people to use these apps when they launch in larger markets.

Consumer advocacy groups say TikTok is still violating COPPA

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US video game sales have record quarter as consumers stay at home

New numbers from NPD confirm what we’ve known for a while: The first quarter of 2020 was a very good one for gaming companies. The new report notes that sales hit a record $10.86 billion in the States between January and March of this year, marking a 9% increase over a year prior; $9.58 billion of that figure was from video game content.

The primary driver is, you guessed it, COVID-19. As stay at home orders have been enacted on the federal and state levels, people are coping with the ongoing daily horror that is life in 2020 by playing video games. Lots and lots of video games.

Here’s NPD’s Mat Piscatella further confirming our suspicions: “Video Games have brought comfort and connection to millions during this challenging time. As people have stayed at home more, they’ve utilized gaming not only as a diversion and an escape, but also as a means of staying connected with family and friends. Whether it was on console or mobile, PC or virtual reality, gaming experienced play and sales growth during the first quarter.”

According to NPD’s Q1 2020 Games Market Dynamics: U.S. report, overall total industry consumer spending on #videogaming in the U.S. reached a record $10.86 billion in the first quarter of 2020 (Jan. – Mar.), an increase of 9 percent compared to the same time period last year.

— NPD Games (@npdgames) May 15, 2020

That last bit is, in part, key to many consumers’ choice of game titles. As already noted by the firm, Animal Crossing: New Horizons had its own record-setting first quarter. That, in turn, helped drive Switch sales, in spite of Nintendo’s well-documented supply issues. The title arrived just in the nick of time for stay at home orders in the U.S., delivering a kind of front-facing social experience that much of the competition lacks. Also, turnips.

Matter of fact, the Switch’s success actually helped supplement losses of other platforms. Microsoft and Sony will no doubt make up gains at the end of the year with their next-gen consoles. For now, however, many consumers are likely holding out until their holiday arrives to invest in Xbox or PlayStation hardware, in spite of the pandemic. The U.S.’s soaring unemployment rate no doubt also had an impact on the industry’s bottom line.

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Forerunner Ventures’ Kirsten Green demystifies the COVID-19 consumer era

“In general, the consumer has proven to be more resilient than I would have thought,” said Kirsten Green, founder of Forerunner Ventures, which has investments in breakout D2C stars like Glossier, Hims and Bonobos.

She joined us for an Extra Crunch Live conversation to help us better understand buying habits in the COVID-19 era. With tens of millions out of work and uncertainty all around, people are spending less, but Green showed up with a healthy dose of optimism — while acknowledging that her worst-case scenario planning was wrong.

Her top-line advice for companies

Take a cautious approach, be prepared to make hard decisions, but be thoughtful about that. Don’t just make a knee jerk-reaction, which is “this is the apocalypse, we all need 36 months of runway, fire half your staff and go to the bunker.” I think the biggest opportunity for companies right now in many ways is to create value by demonstrating their flexibility.

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Parenting benefits company Cleo partners with UrbanSitter to address the US childcare crisis

Parenting benefits company Cleo is partnering with on-demand childcare service UrbanSitter to address a problem facing many parents today amid the pandemic: a lack of childcare, even as they’re required to return to work. With summer camps, daycares and schools shut down for the months ahead, parents who need to work outside the home (or even inside, but without distraction) no longer have options. Cleo’s new solution, Cleo Care, powered by UrbanSitter, aims to address this problem. The company is offering a package to employers that will help connect families with vetted caregivers via concierge support or, as an alternative, with family co-op options, depending on the parents’ preference.

The program will additionally include access to other Cleo support programs, like one-on-one coaching and age-appropriate programs focused on developmental milestones, delivered weekly.

The launch of the new product arrives at a time when the coronavirus outbreak has caused a childcare crisis in the U.S. Working parents have become homeschool teachers, on top of their already overwhelming number of duties. Parents fortunate enough to work from home, however, are continually interrupted by children’s needs, leading to longer working hours to accomplish tasks, and often mental and physical exhaustion.

Cleo surveyed its member base in April 2020, roughly 80% of whom are in the U.S., and found that more than 50% of respondents didn’t have any childcare options due to the pandemic’s impact. It also learned that 1 in 5 families (with two parents) were considering having one partner leave the workforce in order to manage the care of the children. Meanwhile, 37% were considering having family move in.

Among those who were working, more than half felt their productivity was 75% or less than usual. And 1 in 4 felt their productivity was less than 50% of baseline.

The problem is massive. In the U.S. alone, there are 30.5 million working families, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Cleo Care solution will be made available to U.S. employers this month to give parents more options, as well as help employers to bring their staff back to work, when the time comes.

Of course, there’s a variety of opinions about how and when the U.S. should re-open its economy. But the reality is that some parents will need to return to their jobs ahead of the re-opening of child care centers or summer camp programs, many of which have been canceled. In Facebook groups, parents are already trying to solve the problem for themselves by organizing with neighbors for childcare co-ops or by hiring teens or college students for daytime babysitting jobs.

But not everyone has these options. And employers can’t just direct staff to Facebook to find a caregiver.

Instead, the Cleo Care program will provide member parents with concierge support for finding vetted care providers from the UrbanSitter network. Or if the families would prefer to work with neighbors, the solution can also offer to match network members interested in co-op solutions.

These features are new to UrbanSitter, which has never before offered co-op matching and is making the new concierge service exclusive to Cleo Care.

“As working moms desperate for a solution to the crisis facing parents today, we were focused on developing a solution that didn’t just work for our members and enterprise clients, but also one that we’d use ourselves. After experimenting and trying everything from virtual care to scheduling shifts to looking for new caregivers ourselves, we realized the only solution that would work for families would require a new model of childcare designed for the unique issues COVID-19 has created,” said Cleo CEO Sarahjane Sacchetti.

Sacchetti, the former chief marketing officer of Collective Health, stepped in to lead Cleo after its original co-founder Shannon Spanhake was ousted following issues around company culture and a falsified resumé. Since then, Cleo has been expanding its business in the form of numerous partnerships, including those with Natalist, Milk Stork, Playfully, Dadi and others.

The solution will roll out in pilot testing with large U.S. employers to start, the company says. International employers will have access to its Cleo Kids coaching solution while Cleo looks for partnerships with care provider networks outside the U.S.

The employers will pay a combined monthly membership fee for access to Cleo Kids and UrbanSitter as well as one-time matching fees for co-op matching or care provider matching and placement, when used by a family. Cleo says it’s working with employers to explore models to cover some of the matching costs, which can be supported if an employer offers a dependent care FSA.

A sign-up form is here.

Image credits: Cleo

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Extra Crunch Live: Join Revolution’s Steve Case and Clara Sieg on May 21 at 3pm ET/12pm PT

On May 21 at 3pm ET/12pm PT, we’re hosting an Extra Crunch Live session with Steve Case and Clara Sieg of Revolution.

This chat is the latest in our growing series featuring notable investors, entrepreneurs and technologists. Previously, TechCrunch editorial staff sat down (virtually, of course) with Cowboy Ventures’ Aileen Lee and Ted Wang, Sequoia’s Roelof Botha and Mark Cuban, to name a few.

There’s a lot to talk about with Case and Sieg, and Extra Crunch members are encouraged to come with their own set of questions to ask these renowned investors. Revolution is known for its wide range of investments, inside and out of the Valley, so we’re curious how the firm is addressing the COVID-19 crisis.

Steve Case was a co-founder of AOL and led the company as it became the internet giant of the ’90s — and did so outside of Silicon Valley. Because of this, he’s long been a champion of startups from other regions. Yet the firm still has a presence in Silicon Valley, and Clara Sieg has run that effort since 2012 after joining in 2010.

We’re curious how Case, Sieg and other partners are advising startups to weather this storm. With investments throughout the country, Revolution is in a unique position to have a holistic perspective on how the COVID-19 crisis is affecting startups.

Are they still funding startups right now? What metrics are they looking for? What regions of the country do they see less effected than others and which are hardest hit?

We have questions and we hope they have answers.

Extra Crunch members can ask their own questions directly in the Zoom Q&A. So come prepared! You can find the full information for the chat below. See you there!

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Daily Crunch: Uber will require masks for drivers and passengers

Uber announces some COVID-19 related changes, Google’s Chrome browser is giving users a way to organize their tabs and the Senate rejects an amendment that would have raised the bar for law enforcement access to browsing data.

Here’s your Daily Crunch for May 14, 2020.

1. Here’s how your Uber ride will change, starting May 18

The changes — which include an online checklist for all rides, limits on the number of passengers in vehicles and a face mask verification feature for drivers — are designed to stop the spread of COVID-19, the company said Wednesday.

Riders and drivers, as well as delivery workers and even restaurants that use Uber Eats, will have the power to report unsafe COVID-19 behavior and give low ratings. For instance, a delivery worker can give feedback that a restaurant doesn’t have proper protocols in place, such as social distancing.

2. Google Chrome will finally help you organize your tabs

Google announced the launch of “tab groups” for the beta version of its web browser, which will allow you to organize, label and even color-code your tabs for easy access. The feature will make its way to the stable release of Chrome starting next week.

3. Senate narrowly rejects plan to require a warrant for Americans’ browsing data

Senators have narrowly rejected a bipartisan amendment that would have required the government first obtain a warrant before accessing Americans’ web browsing data. The amendment brought by Sens. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Steve Daines (R-MT) would have forced the government to first establish probable cause (or reasonable suspicion of a crime) to obtain the warrant.

4. Kustomer acquires Reply.ai to enhance chatbots on its CRM platform

Reply.ai is a startup originally founded in Madrid that has built a code-free platform for companies to create customized chatbots to handle customer service inquiries. Its customers include Coca-Cola, Starbucks and Samsung.

5. Why we’re doubling down on cloud investments right now

Three investors at Bessemer Venture Partners argue that COVID-19 is a turning point for the cloud and cloud company founders, and that the cloud model offers businesses a promising future in the age of social distancing and beyond. (Extra Crunch membership required.)

6. Facebook, telcos to build huge subsea cable for Africa and Middle East

The project, called 2Africa, will see the companies lay cables that will stretch to 37,000km (22,990 miles) and interconnect Europe (eastward via Egypt), the Middle East (via Saudi Arabia) and 21 landings in 16 countries in Africa.

7. 7 top mobility VCs discuss COVID-19 strategies and trends

TechCrunch spoke to seven venture capitalists about how COVID-19 affected their portfolio and investment strategy, their current advice for startup founders and where they think the next hot opportunity will be. (Extra Crunch membership required.)

The Daily Crunch is TechCrunch’s roundup of our biggest and most important stories. If you’d like to get this delivered to your inbox every day at around 9am Pacific, you can subscribe here.

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How to protect your equity if you’ve been furloughed or laid off

Wouter Witvoet
Contributor

Wouter Witvoet is founder and CEO of Secfi, a pre-wealth management equity planning platform for startup employees.

If you’ve been lucky enough to keep your job or business, you almost certainly know someone who wasn’t so fortunate.

Thousands have lost their jobs as companies significantly reduce workforces to adjust to uncertainties and economic challenges created by COVID-19. Many of these people in tech are now faced with a number of questions, from how they’ll pay next month’s rent to whether they’re eligible for unemployment. One area that is particularly confusing is what to do if your compensation package was tied to equity.

Here are some ways I suggest approaching the issue.

Safeguard your equity

Layoffs have become part and parcel of the current economic crisis with unemployment figures skyrocketing to record highs as a result of COVID-19. From multinational conglomerates to mom-and-pop stores, everyone is feeling the impact, and the startup sector is no different.

Despite difficult circumstances, the silver lining for employees is that we have seen many management teams go the extra mile to help their teams, especially when it comes to equity. Compared to traditional layoff situations, companies in the COVID-19 era are offering generous extensions and accelerated vesting on their options, which is undeniably good news for employees with equity.

Typically, equity plans come with a 90-day exercise window after employment termination. That means that if you leave the company, you will have to exercise your options within 90 days or they go back to the company. However, lots of management teams have decided to extend these deadlines many years out given the circumstances.

While layoffs are not easy, it’s been great to see management teams doing the right thing when it comes to equity for their employees who have been laid off. Offering extensions is a benefit that employers should be offering their employees who have helped build the company.

If your company is not offering this, consider negotiating and asking for an extension. This is the right thing to do for employees who are now out of work and a paycheck for the foreseeable future. Both options do not require the company to pay cash at the moment, so there are few reasons a company should deny this request in this environment.

Consider exercising your options

Even if you are granted an extension to exercise your options, employees that hold incentive stock options (ISOs) should look into exercising their options now to maximize their equity’s value.
Many companies are offering extensions for option exercises. While this is great in that it gives employees more time to figure out their exercise situation, waiting past the 90-day window may have much bigger tax consequences that employees need to consider.

ISOs are much more tax advantageous compared to non-qualified stock options (NSOs). They are not taxed under standard income tax and if you sell the stock two years after grant date and one year after exercise date, you sell them as part of a qualifying disposition. In short, this allows you to effectively convert everything north of your strike price to preferential long-term capital gain rates.

As part of offering these tax advantages, the tax code has limitations on ISOs. Most relevant to us at this point is that the fact that you cannot have ISOs past 90 days after you are no longer an employee. This means that even if your company allows an extension on your stock options past the typical 90-day expiration window, your ISOs will convert to NSOs and lose their tax benefit.

This creates a potential planning opportunity that employees who have been laid off need to consider. If you feel good about the upside of the company, then you should consider exercising your ISOs today to capture the potential tax benefits rather than letting them convert to NSOs. Employees who wait risk putting themselves in the same difficult situation once the extension ends at typically less favorable conditions due to an increased 409A valuation.

Negotiate for equity during a pay cut or furlough

In light of the economic slowdown many companies have begun to cut costs. Reduced pay or furloughing employees has become the new norm as businesses of all sizes struggle to navigate these changing times.

It can obviously be concerning if you find yourself in this situation. But for startup employees, the COVID-19 crisis could provide an opportunity to negotiate your compensation package to make up for this decrease, and even set yourself up to prosper in the future.

Startups typically offer equity as a means of deferred compensation and as a way to incentivize employees to own a piece of the company they are building. The compensation is deferred as most startups are cash-strapped and cannot afford to pay you what a larger company may be able to.

If your company is now asking you to take a pay cut, or even take no pay during this time, you should consider asking for additional equity to make up for the lost compensation. While not all companies may be amenable to offering more equity, there is no cash outlay from the company’s standpoint, so it’s an efficient way for your company to compensate you for your sacrifice while preserving their cash.

In addition, offering more equity shows a commitment from management to their employees during this difficult time. It may be the win-win scenario for your company and yourself in the long-run so it’s worth having the conversation with management to discuss if this is available for you.

If your company does offer you more equity, make sure you ask whether the 409A (or fair market value) of the company is being updated. With revised forecasts given the COVID-19 situation, it may be possible for your company to issue your stock at a lower strike price if the company revalues its 409A.

Don’t be afraid to ask for help

I can sympathize with startup employees right now because I faced a similar situation when I left a startup that I had joined as employee number four and was forced to wave goodbye to the equity I had banked on.

If you want to take action on equity but don’t know where to start, now might be a good time to brush up on how your stock options work. As the economy begins to reopen, there’s a good chance we’ll see a rush for candidates in tech as companies compete to bring in some of the extremely talented folks who lost their jobs this week.

Those who have a good understanding of equity may be positioned for a big payday down the line.

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These best practices maximize the value of your online events

Jonathan Greechan
Contributor

Jonathan Greechan is co-founder of the world’s largest pre-seed accelerator, Founder Institute, has run over 100 webinars including 100,000+ live attendees, and is one of Meetup’s most active organizers.

Around the world, the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting calendars — along with travel budgets and marketing plans — by canceling events ranging from major league sports to tech conferences. This has impacted the startup and tech industries on all levels; by early March, economic losses from tech event cancellations alone amounted to more than $1.1 billion.

In response, many businesses have taken events online. Teleconferencing tools are being used more than ever, and Zoom registered 200 million daily users in March, up from a record of 10 million. Business figures and organizations can harness these online tools to minimize the blow of the worldwide shutdown, reach their target audiences and position themselves as thought leaders, but moving events online has its own problems.

The more meetups are generated, the more likely it is that yours will get lost in a sea of options. It’s also significantly easier for people to “attend” an event — and ignore it or exit early. There are plenty of studies demonstrating that internet users have shorter attention spans.

So you have to stand out and keep people engaged while speaking to people through a screen thousands of miles away. Over the past decade I have run more than 100 webinars with over 100,000 live attendees, and am one of the largest Meetup organizers in the world. Through trial and error I have developed a set of best practices that will keep people engaged in online events.

Transmitting real value by computer is certainly more challenging than face-to-face, but following these three pointers will help you get there.

1. Prepare for all eventualities

We all know what a badly prepared organized meeting looks like: frozen screens, buffering videos and broken audio.

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Why we’re doubling down on cloud investments right now

Mary D’Onofrio
Contributor

Mary D’Onofrio is a software investor at Bessemer Venture Partners who joined to start the firm’s growth practice; she’s also an architect of ^EMCLOUD and authored the 10 Laws of Cloud and the State of the Cloud 2020.

Hansae Catlett
Contributor

Hansae Catlett is an investor for Bessemer Venture Partners where he primarily focuses on investments in cloud (enterprise and SMB), machine learning and consumer technologies; he’s an author behind the State of the Cloud 2020.

Elliott Robinson
Contributor

Elliott Robinson is a partner for Bessemer Venture Partners, one of the authors behind the State of the Cloud 2020, and focuses primarily on growth investments in SaaS and cloud companies.

Years from now, people will look back on the COVID-19 pandemic as a watershed moment for society and the global economy.

Wearing a mask might be as common as owning a phone; telework, telemedicine and online education will be more of a norm than a backup plan; and for the global economy, the cloud will have transformed the underlying infrastructure of businesses and entire industries.

COVID-19 is a turning point for the cloud and cloud company founders. For its computing power and as a delivery model of software, the cloud has been embraced as a solution to many challenges that businesses face during today’s economic downturn and recovery. Not only is the cloud industry more resilient than other industries, but the cloud model offers businesses a promising future in the age of social distancing and beyond.

We believe that once founders find shelter in the cloud, they’ll never go back.

Cloud’s resiliency amid historic volatility

Over the past decade, there’s been a massive market shift from on-premises to cloud, as 94% of enterprises use at least one cloud service today. 2020 was already a milestone year for the cloud industry, as aggregate SaaS and IaaS run-rate revenue each crossed $100 billion, and the BVP Nasdaq Emerging Cloud Index (^EMCLOUD) market cap crossed $1 trillion in early February. Yet in a matter of days, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread, fear tore through financial markets.

In early March, public markets experienced the steepest crash in history with volatility we haven’t seen since the Great Recession. The cloud index market cap dropped to ~$750 million and cloud multiples returned close to their historical averages of ~7x while the VIX volatility index spiked to the mid-80s. Both at global highs in February 2020, the ^EMCLOUD and the S&P 500 traded off by roughly 35% by mid-March. Over the next two months, though, the ^EMCLOUD recouped those losses, charging to a new all-time high on May 7.

The cloud index has continued its rise since then, and as of the close on May 11 has a market cap above $1.2 trillion and has returned to the lofty 12x forward run rate revenue multiples from 2019. Similar to Adobe in 2012, we expect many enterprises to transition over to the cloud model, and the index will continue to expand. As we predicted in this year’s State of the Cloud 2020, by 2025 we expect the cloud to penetrate 50% of enterprise software.

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